As the dust settles on the turbulent 2023 elections, Sierra Leone is already inching towards yet another defining moment in its democratic journey that is expected to experience countless political maneuvering —the 2028 general elections.
The countdown may seem premature to some, but for seasoned political observers, strategists, and party insiders, the race has already begun. In fact, the real battles are often fought long before ballot boxes are deployed or slogans are coined. The years leading up to an election are when the foundations are laid, alliances forged, betrayals executed, and ideologies reshaped to match political interests.
The 2028 elections promise to be a seismic political event. And if current trends hold, Sierra Leone is heading into a period of intense political maneuvering—within and between the two dominant parties, the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) and the All People’s Congress (APC), as well as among smaller but increasingly influential political entities.
APC: Rebuilding or Imploding?
The All People’s Congress (APC), long regarded as the main opposition force, finds itself at a delicate crossroads. After a controversial electoral outcome in 2023, which many within the party still view as a betrayal of the democratic process, the APC must now balance two imperatives: healing internal rifts and articulating a bold new vision for governance.
But first, the internal question looms large: who leads the APC into 2028?
Samura Kamara, the party’s resilient flagbearer in 2018 and 2023, remains a towering figure—respected by many for his diplomatic poise, experience, and national appeal. Yet, fatigue is building within certain circles about repeating candidacies. Younger voices within the APC want change—a fresh face, new ideas, and broader youth engagement.
Behind closed doors, ambitious figures are beginning to position themselves. Names such as Chernor Bah (Chericoco), former ministers, and diaspora technocrats are quietly networking and lobbying constituencies. Party elders, meanwhile, are scrambling to broker a truce between reformers and loyalists to avoid a repeat of the pre-2018 factional battles that weakened the party’s chances.
Expect intense maneuvering at the APC convention, likely in 2026 or early 2027, where the flagbearer decision could determine whether the APC presents a unified front or self-destructs before the starting whistle.
SLPP: The Succession Headache
For the ruling Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP), the 2028 race is not just about retaining power—it’s about navigating succession in a high-stakes environment. President Julius Maada Bio is constitutionally barred from running again, creating a power vacuum that many in the party are eager to fill.
The race to succeed Bio is already breeding political tension. At the heart of the maneuvering is the current Chief Minister, Dr. David Moinina Sengeh—a tech-savvy, youthful, and internationally celebrated figure. While his academic credentials and digital charisma make him an appealing modernizer, critics question his political maturity and grassroots presence.
Meanwhile, powerful internal factions—particularly the First Lady’s circle and regional party stalwarts from the South and East—are uneasy about handing the reins to a Western Area-based technocrat. The Vice President, Dr. Mohamed Juldeh Jalloh, a quiet force within the administration, may yet surprise many with a late bid, especially if he wins the backing of SLPP traditionalists.
This internal contest is expected to intensify by 2025–2026, with every ministerial appointment, regional tour, and party meeting doubling as a campaign platform. Watch for realignments, quiet character assassinations, and strategic endorsements as the SLPP wrestles with its post-Bio identity.
The Rise of “Third Forces”
Beyond the APC and SLPP, there is a growing appetite—particularly among young people and urban voters—for alternative voices. Parties such as the National Grand Coalition (NGC) and the Unity Party, as well as newer movements driven by civil society activists, have yet to make significant electoral gains. But 2028 could be their moment.
Julius Spencer, Kandeh Yumkella (if he returns to active politics), or even someone like Charles Margai could decide to throw their hats back into the ring. These third forces could function as spoilers or kingmakers—splitting votes in tightly contested regions or forcing a runoff scenario.
Additionally, the possibility of coalition politics cannot be ruled out. Some smaller parties are already discussing forming a united front—a “Third Way Coalition”—to challenge the two-party hegemony. Though the electoral landscape remains skewed in favor of the APC and SLPP, a united third force with a compelling message on corruption, youth empowerment, and decentralization could gain traction.
Regional & Tribal Maneuvering
Sierra Leone’s politics, though increasingly urbanized, still rests on deep ethno-regional foundations. The North remains largely an APC stronghold, the South and East a bastion for the SLPP, and the Western Area an unpredictable battleground. These regional identities will continue to shape maneuvering, with both parties making strategic moves to encroach into each other’s territory.
Expect to see a push for more inclusive messaging, strategic marriages, appointments of regional figureheads, and development projects designed to sway swing districts. Tribal endorsements, though often cloaked in nationalism, will be in play. Religious leaders and traditional authorities will also be courted heavily in the coming years.
Electoral Institutions and Constitutional Engineering
Political maneuvering in Sierra Leone is not limited to party offices or campaign rallies. It also plays out in institutions: the judiciary, the Electoral Commission, and the constitution itself. Both major parties will attempt to shape the rules of the game—either subtly or openly.
The SLPP’s recent involvement in constitutional reform debates has raised suspicions about potential gerrymandering or attempts to tweak term limits and electoral timelines. Meanwhile, APC-aligned legal minds are pushing for electoral reforms that they say would guarantee transparency but could also favor their return to power.
Between now and 2028, expect legal battles, protests, commissions of inquiry, and legislative maneuvering—all designed to create a favorable pre-election climate.
Media, Propaganda, and Digital Warfare
In an age of TikTok, WhatsApp, and AI-generated content, political warfare has gone digital. Both APC and SLPP are investing heavily in social media influencers, online campaign teams, and digital surveillance. Propaganda, misinformation, and targeted disinformation campaigns will rise as the 2028 race approaches.
Independent media will be caught in the crossfire, with some being co-opted while others face intimidation or censorship. Civil society and fact-checking organizations must brace for an onslaught of manipulation aimed at confusing voters and undermining credible discourse.
International Influence and Diaspora Dynamics
The international community—especially ECOWAS, the African Union, and Western development partners—will play a quiet but powerful role. Expect diplomatic pressure for electoral reforms, free press protections, and post-Bio transition planning. But foreign interference will also be a factor, especially around Chinese and Western-backed infrastructure or energy deals.
Meanwhile, the Sierra Leonean diaspora—wealthy, vocal, and increasingly organized—is gearing up to be a serious influence. Campaign financing, online mobilization, and remote lobbying are likely to intensify. The question remains: will they find a unified voice or continue to act in fragmented blocs?
The Game Is On
The road to 2028 will be long, treacherous, and filled with surprises. The major parties are already sharpening their blades. The smaller players are quietly plotting disruption. Ethnic loyalties, regional ambitions, ideological repositioning, and digital propaganda are aligning into what will be a titanic political showdown.
What is at stake is not just power, but the direction of Sierra Leone’s democracy. The country stands at a crossroads where its next leaders could either deepen the wounds of division or chart a bold new course for unity, growth, and justice.
The average Sierra Leonean must watch carefully—not just the speeches but the silences, not just the promises but the policies, not just the faces but the forces behind them.
The game has begun. And for those paying attention, the real election starts now.
