By Dr. Kaifala Marah
Sierra Leoneans have heard this story before — statistics that shine in official speeches but dim in the light of everyday reality. The 2025 Supplementary Budget is being sold as a triumph of fiscal consolidation and credibility. Yet, behind the smiles and statistical gains, our economy remains fragile, our institutions strained, and our people still struggling under the weight of rising prices and limited opportunities.
This is not simply an economic story; it is a story of trust. Trust in our leaders to make reforms that match their words. Trust that the progress touted in parliament will reach the markets, the classrooms, the hospitals, and the streets where Sierra Leoneans live their lives. Without that trust, even the brightest numbers are meaningless.
Foreword
When I addressed the gathering at Bintumani Conference Centre on 10th July 2025, I spoke as a Sierra Leonean deeply concerned about our nation’s economic trajectory. The Government’s subsequent presentation of the supplementary budget has left me with deeper concern.
This memorandum provides a critical appraisal of the Government’s presentation of the 2025 Supplementary Budget, under the theme “Fiscal Consolidation and Budget Credibility”, which came against a backdrop of headline improvements in inflation, interest rates, and GDP growth.
Yet beneath these statistics lie deeper structural weaknesses that threaten our long-term stability, limit our ability to invest in the nation’s future, and erode public confidence. This is a budget that manages perceptions while postponing the hard reforms that could secure real stability and prosperity.
Executive Summary
The Government’s supplementary spending plan acknowledges fiscal challenges but largely avoids the comprehensive reforms needed to address them. The macroeconomic gains it celebrates — inflation down from 54.5% (Oct 2023) to 7.1% (June 2025), Treasury bill rates falling from 41.3% to 14.8%, GDP growth revised to 4.5% — are welcome but fragile.
Beneath these gains:
Gross reserves have fallen to 1.8 months of import cover, far below adequacy levels.
Public debt has risen to $3.1bn, split between $1.8bn external and $1.3bn domestic.
Revenue mobilisation has underperformed by over NLe1.0bn, with GST collections particularly weak.
Capital investment, the lifeblood of future growth, has been halved from NLe2.2bn to NLe1.1bn.
Recurrent spending continues to rise, driven by interest obligations and subsidy arrears. Of the
additional NLe3.7bn in the Supplementary Budget (raising the total from NLe27.6bn to NLe31.3bn), nearly 60% goes to these recurrent costs.
The fiscal deficit remains at 3.8% of GDP, but this stability is maintained through short-term borrowing rather than lasting reforms.
Core Concerns
Collapse of Capital Investment – Sustainability challenges
The halving of capital expenditure from NLe2.2bn to NLe1.1bn signals a retreat from nation-building investments in infrastructure, health, and energy. This contraction is particularly troubling given that nearly 60% of the additional NLe3.7bn in supplementary spending is going to recurrent obligations rather than development projects. The tradeoff is clear: resources that could have funded new schools, roads, or energy systems are instead being diverted to service arrears and interest payments, offering little to no long-term economic return.
Unsustainable Debt Service Burden
Interest payments in the Supplementary Budget outpace capital spending, meaning more is spent on debt than on growth. Over half of domestic revenue is now consumed by debt servicing, a ratio that leaves little space for development. Short-term domestic borrowing at high cost exposes the economy to rollover risks and rising interest bills.
Revenue Collection Failures
A GST shortfall of more than NLe1.0bn points to deep-rooted weaknesses in tax administration. The absence of a comprehensive tax exemption review or reforms to customs and port operations leaves major leakages untouched.
Governance and Institutional Drift
Despite repeated calls, the budget contains no measures to strengthen transparency, accountability, or institutional capacity. No progress has been made on establishing a Cut Waste Panel, reforming travel policy, or reviewing the wage bill. Strategic projects — the Stock Exchange, Young Entrepreneurs Fund, Skills Development Fund, digital economy initiatives — remain abandoned since 2018.
Service Delivery Breakdown
Delayed public sector wages, underfunded education subventions, and arrears to Independent Power Providers point to a budget that fails the basic test of delivering services reliably and protecting citizens’ welfare. With nearly 60% of the supplementary budget’s new allocation going to recurrent costs, there is inadequate fiscal space to maintain core public services, eroding both budget credibility and the social contract.
External Vulnerability and Policy Credibility
With reserves critically low (Gross reserves have dropped to 1.8 months of import cover, far below the 3-month international adequacy benchmark) and the IMF program in jeopardy, the administration’s policy credibility is in question. The decline in inflation, while welcome, appears partly driven by temporary subsidy measures rather than sustained structural stabilisation.
A Reform Agenda for Transformation
Sierra Leone needs a course correction — one that moves beyond managing statistics to building the institutional, economic, and social foundations for lasting prosperity. The reforms outlined below are not abstract ideals; they are drawn from proven measures that, when implemented in the past, helped stabilise our economy, restore investor confidence, and deliver tangible improvements to citizens’ lives. Implemented together, they would not only address immediate vulnerabilities but also lay the groundwork for a diversified, resilient, and inclusive economy.
Immediate Priorities
Establish a Cut Waste Panel of senior officials and independent experts to oversee expenditure discipline.
Enforce travel policy reform and conduct a wage bill review to contain recurrent costs.
Conduct a comprehensive tax exemption audit to close leakages and broaden the revenue base.
Medium-Term Reforms
Revive strategic growth platforms: Stock Exchange, Young Entrepreneurs Fund, Skills Development Fund. Implement agricultural transformation — land policy reform, agricultural development bank, and value-chain investment.
Rebuild infrastructure in energy, transport, and water to stimulate productivity.
Conclusion
Sierra Leone stands at a crossroads. The 2025 Supplementary Budget offers a path of incremental change, one that preserves short-term stability but leaves the structural weaknesses of our economy unaddressed.
My own record shows that it is possible to maintain debt sustainability, protect capital investment even during crises, and implement governance reforms that restore credibility at home and abroad. The choice before us now is stark: keep polishing the numbers for applause, or start doing the hard work of reform that will turn statistics into a better life for our citizens.
Our economy does not need cosmetic surgery; it needs reconstructive reform. And it needs it now.
For more info contact us at
MarahKONH@gmail.com
