By David Marcus Margai
Date: December 24, 2025
History rarely repeats itself exactly – but in politics, it often rhymes. SLPP learned this lesson painfully in 2007, when complacency, elite detachment, and voter fatigue fractured what many believed were impregnable political strongholds. As the nation slowly edges toward 2028, familiar warning signs are beginning to surface once again – this time in the southeastern heartland of the ruling Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP).
At the center of this unfolding dynamic is a figure many within SLPP circles still underestimate: Jargaban.
This is not an alarmist cry. It is a strategic warning grounded in history, economics, and first-hand grassroots engagement.
A Journey Through the Southeast: What the People Are Saying
In recent weeks, I travelled to Kenema Town via Sengbema, initially to attend my late father’s 40th-day memorial ceremony. That solemn family obligation unexpectedly became a valuable political listening tour. With time on my hands, I engaged residents, friends, family members, youth leaders, bike riders, traders, teachers, farmers, market women, and informal group leaders.
What I encountered was not hostility toward the SLPP. What I heard was something far more dangerous politically: quiet disengagement mixed with growing resentment.
Across conversations, the grievances were strikingly consistent:
A widening disconnect between ordinary citizens and politically appointed elites
Inflation, stagflation, and shrinkflation steadily eroding household survival
Declining real income from farming and petty trading
A deep sense of abandonment by those entrusted with political authority
These frustrations are not ideological. They are material, lived, and daily. And history teaches us that material pain when left unacknowledged is fertile ground for political realignment.
Who Is Jargaban and Why He Matters
Jargaban is an opposition APC figure whose maternal roots trace to Blama in the southeast. Over time, he has methodically expanded his engagement from Blama to Sengbema, Kailahun Town, Kenema, Freetown, and parts of the north – often in places long assumed to be safely SLPP territory.
He presents himself as accessible, culturally fluent, and emotionally present qualities that matter enormously in Sierra Leone’s retail, face-to-face politics.
There is public debate about his funding sources and professional background. Conflicting narratives exist. But politically, what matters most is not speculation, it is perception. And the prevailing perception among many grassroots actors is simple: he has time, resources, and focus-three things voters increasingly feel SLPP intermediaries no longer offer.
Whether Jargaban ultimately emerges as APC flagbearer or not, a running mate, or a regional mobiliser is almost secondary. What matters is this: vote erosion in a stronghold is often more fatal than opposition gains elsewhere.
The 2007 Parallel: Ernest Koroma, Sam Sumana, and the Cost of Complacency
The present moment bears uncomfortable resemblance to the Ernest Koroma–Sam Sumana axis of 2007.
At that time, the SLPP underestimated the cumulative impact of internal fractures, regional neglect, and voter fatigue. Sam Sumana, leveraging eastern roots and grassroots engagement particularly in Kono helped the APC penetrate areas once thought politically secure.
The outcome was seismic: the SLPP lost power.
Crucially, the APC did not suddenly become universally popular. Rather, SLPP votes quietly stayed home or shifted just enough. Plurality systems do not punish parties for losing everywhere; they punish them for losing slightly, in the wrong places.
Inflation, Stagflation, Shrinkflation: The Silent Vote Killers
Today’s economic pressures are more complex than in 2007 but arguably more corrosive.
Inflation has slashed real incomes
Stagflation has combined rising prices with stagnant opportunities
Shrinkflation has quietly reduced value without reducing cost
For rural farmers and informal traders the backbone of the southeastern electorate – these forces translate into daily hardship. What deepens the frustration is not hardship alone, but the absence of visible empathy, explanation, and reassurance from party leadership.
Politics is not only about performance.
It is about perceived concern.
The Vacuum Left Behind – and Who Is Filling It
Politics is as much about empathy and visibility as it is about execution. When party leaders and officeholders retreat into formality, protocol, or silence, a vacuum inevitably emerges – not of policy, but of recognition.
For a considerable period, First Lady Dr. Fatima Jabbie Bio played a critical-though informal stabilizing role within the SLPP ecosystem. Through direct outreach and sustained social engagement, particularly with women and youth, she helped bridge the emotional distance between the presidency and everyday communities. This earned her genuine grassroots appeal across the country, including the southeast.
Her presence has not diminished. Rather, she and Jargaban are now operating in the same political space, competing-intentionally or not-to fill the vacuum left by traditional politicians who have withdrawn from consistent grassroots engagement.
Nature-and politics-abhor a vacuum.
Sensing this opening, Jargaban has stepped in with symbolic gestures, personal presence, and targeted philanthropy. These actions may not amount to structured policy or long-term development, but they communicate something politically powerful: “I see you.”
In contemporary politics, especially among marginal voters, recognition often precedes loyalty.
Roads Are Not Enough
President Julius Maada Bio’s administration has made notable investments in road infrastructure, particularly in Kenema. These achievements matter. They deserve recognition. But infrastructure alone does not secure political loyalty.
Voters are not abstract beneficiaries of development statistics. They are human beings with layered needs:
Jobs, Dignity, Inclusion and Constant engagement
Without sustained political communication and grassroots presence, even genuine achievements fade from memory.
A Strategic Warning—Not an Alarmist Cry
This argument is not that the SLPP is destined to lose the southeast. It is a warning that taking the region for granted is strategically reckless.
Every voter Jargaban influences in SLPP strongholds – however small the number may appear – carries disproportionate weight in a competitive election. Laughing off this trend would repeat the exact error that cost the party power before.
The Question for 2028
The real question is not whether Jargaban becomes APC flagbearer.
The real question is whether the SLPP will:
Re-engage its base with humility
Address economic pain with seriousness
Rebuild emotional and political trust at the grassroots
History has already shown the cost of ignoring these signals.
In 2007, the warning signs were visible but dismissed.
In 2028, the stakes are higher, the electorate more informed, and the margin for error far thinner.
The southeast is speaking again. The question is: who is listening?
David Marcus Margai is the Founder and CEO of Education and Environmental Protection (EEP), a local NGO dedicated to tourism development, community engagement, environmental protection, and youth empowerment. He is a writer, researcher, and political analyst.
Tel: +232 74 053 142 | Email: david44mac_55@yahoo.com or educationenvprotection2020@gmail.com
