By Cyllo Wise
As Sierra Leone approaches the 2028 general elections, the political landscape is expected to undergo significant shifts that could determine the direction the country will take for the next decade. The battle for control of the State House will likely be between the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) and the All People’s Congress (APC), the two dominant political forces that have alternated power since the country’s independence. The anticipation of a possible shift from SLPP to APC, or as it is often referred to, from “green to red,” carries with it deep political, social, and economic implications for Sierra Leone.
To understand the potential shift in 2028, it’s essential to examine the historical context and political dynamics that have defined Sierra Leonean politics. Since gaining independence in 1961, Sierra Leone has experienced periods of instability, military coups, and civil war, all of which have influenced its political landscape. The APC, established in 1960, and the SLPP, founded in 1951, have been the main political players, with each party having a strong regional and ethnic base. The APC traditionally garners support from the Northern Province and parts of the Western Area, while the SLPP draws its base from the Southern and Eastern Provinces.
The alternation of power between these two parties has often been influenced by a combination of factors, including economic performance, governance, corruption, and the effectiveness of social policies. The outcome of the 2028 elections will likely hinge on these same factors, as well as the ability of the respective parties to navigate the changing political terrain.
The SLPP, under the leadership of President Julius Maada Bio, has been in power since 2018. Bio’s administration has focused on several key areas, including education, healthcare, and anti-corruption efforts. The “Free Quality Education” program, which provides free primary and secondary education to Sierra Leonean children, has been one of Bio’s flagship initiatives. The program has received international recognition and has significantly increased school enrollment across the country. Additionally, Bio’s government has taken steps to combat corruption, empowering the Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) to investigate and prosecute high-profile cases.
However, the SLPP’s tenure has not been without controversy. The administration has faced criticism over its handling of the economy, with many Sierra Leoneans expressing dissatisfaction with the rising cost of living, high unemployment rates, and inadequate infrastructure development. The economic challenges have been exacerbated by the global COVID-19 pandemic, which strained the country’s resources and led to a slowdown in economic growth. Furthermore, Bio’s administration has been accused of authoritarian tendencies, particularly in its handling of opposition parties and civil society groups.
These challenges have led to growing discontent among the electorate, particularly in urban areas where the economic hardships are most acutely felt. As the SLPP approaches the end of its second term, the question remains whether the party can address these issues and retain the confidence of the voters or whether the electorate will turn to the APC for an alternative.
The All People’s Congress, now in opposition, is positioning itself as the party of change, capitalizing on the perceived failures of the SLPP. The APC’s leadership will be crucial in determining the party’s success in the 2028 elections. The choice of presidential candidate, the party’s ability to unite its various factions, and its strategy to appeal to a broad base of voters will all play a significant role in its electoral prospects.
Historically, the APC has been known for its strong organizational structure and its ability to mobilize supporters, particularly in the Northern Province and the Western Area. The party’s focus in 2028 will likely be on addressing the economic grievances of the populace, offering policies that promise job creation, infrastructure development, and economic stability. The APC may also emphasize its track record in government, particularly during the presidency of Ernest Bai Koroma (2007-2018), when the country experienced significant infrastructure development and economic growth, albeit with its own challenges.
One of the critical challenges the APC will face is overcoming the legacy of corruption and governance issues that plagued its last tenure in office. The party will need to convince voters that it has learned from its past mistakes and is committed to transparent and accountable governance. Additionally, the APC will need to build alliances with key political figures and interest groups, including youth and women, to broaden its appeal beyond its traditional base.
Ethnicity and regionalism have long played a significant role in Sierra Leonean politics, and the 2028 elections will be no exception. The SLPP’s stronghold in the South and East, and the APC’s dominance in the North and parts of the West, have often led to elections being fought along ethnic and regional lines. This pattern of voting has at times exacerbated divisions within the country and hindered the development of a more cohesive national identity.
For either party to secure victory in 2028, they will need to transcend these ethnic and regional loyalties and appeal to a broader, more diverse electorate. This will require addressing the needs and concerns of all Sierra Leoneans, regardless of their ethnic background or region. Issues such as poverty, unemployment, education, and healthcare are national concerns that affect all citizens and should form the basis of any successful political campaign.
Sierra Leone’s population is predominantly young, with over 60% of the population under the age of 35. This demographic reality means that the youth vote will be a critical factor in the 2028 elections. Both the SLPP and the APC will need to develop policies and programs that address the aspirations and concerns of young people, particularly in areas such as education, employment, and political participation.
Social media is expected to play a significant role in shaping the political discourse in 2028. The rise of digital platforms has provided a new space for political engagement, allowing young people to voice their opinions, mobilize support, and hold leaders accountable. Both parties will need to effectively leverage social media to reach and engage with this critical demographic. The use of social media can also help to counteract the influence of traditional media, which has often been aligned with specific political interests.
The youth vote presents both an opportunity and a challenge for the political parties. On one hand, young people are more likely to be open to change and new ideas, making them a key target for any party that positions itself as the agent of change. On the other hand, the high levels of unemployment and economic hardship experienced by many young Sierra Leoneans could lead to disillusionment with the political process, potentially reducing voter turnout or leading to protest votes.
The state of the economy will undoubtedly be one of the most critical factors in the 2028 elections. Sierra Leone’s economy has faced numerous challenges over the past decade, including the impact of the Ebola epidemic, the global COVID-19 pandemic, and fluctuating commodity prices. The country’s heavy reliance on the extractive sector, particularly mining, has made it vulnerable to external shocks, while high levels of debt have limited the government’s ability to invest in infrastructure and social services.
For the SLPP, the challenge will be to demonstrate that it has laid the groundwork for sustainable economic growth and that its social policies, such as the Free Quality Education program, are beginning to bear fruit. The party will need to convince voters that it can continue to manage the economy effectively and deliver tangible improvements in their lives.
For the APC, the strategy will likely be to highlight the economic difficulties faced by Sierra Leoneans under the SLPP and to present itself as the party that can restore economic stability and growth. The APC may point to its previous tenure in office, particularly the infrastructure development and economic expansion achieved under Ernest Bai Koroma, as evidence of its ability to manage the economy.
However, both parties will need to address the underlying structural issues that have hampered Sierra Leone’s economic development, including corruption, poor governance, and a lack of diversification. Voters will be looking for credible, realistic economic policies that can deliver results, and the party that can best articulate such a vision will likely have the upper hand in the elections.
Civil society organizations (CSOs) and international observers will play a crucial role in the 2028 elections. CSOs have been instrumental in promoting democratic governance, human rights, and accountability in Sierra Leone. They have also been active in voter education and election monitoring, helping to ensure that the electoral process is free, fair, and transparent.
The presence of international observers, including those from the African Union (AU), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and the European Union (EU), will be important in providing legitimacy to the election results. Their assessments of the electoral process will influence both domestic and international perceptions of the elections.
The role of civil society will be particularly important in ensuring that the voices of marginalized groups, including women, youth, and people with disabilities, are heard and that their rights are protected. CSOs will also be critical in holding the political parties accountable for their campaign promises and in monitoring the conduct of the elections to prevent fraud and violence.
As the 2028 elections approach, several potential scenarios could unfold, each with different implications for Sierra Leone’s future:
In this scenario, the SLPP manages to overcome the challenges of its tenure and retains power for a third consecutive term. This outcome would likely hinge on the party’s ability to deliver on its social policies, particularly in education and healthcare, and to convince voters that it is the best choice to manage the economy. However, the SLPP would need to address concerns about governance and human rights to maintain its legitimacy.
If the APC wins the 2028 elections, it would signal a significant shift in Sierra Leone’s political landscape, with the electorate expressing dissatisfaction with the SLPP’s handling of key issues. The APC would be expected to prioritize economic reforms, infrastructure development, and job creation to address the country’s pressing challenges. However, the party would also need to demonstrate a commitment to tackling the governance and corruption issues that have plagued its previous administrations. A return to power for the APC could also potentially exacerbate regional and ethnic divisions if not managed carefully, underscoring the need for inclusive governance.
Although the SLPP and APC have historically dominated Sierra Leonean politics, the 2028 elections could see the rise of a new political force or a coalition of smaller parties. This scenario might occur if neither the SLPP nor the APC can secure a decisive victory, leading to a coalition government. A new political force could emerge from disillusionment with the status quo, particularly among the youth and urban voters who feel that neither of the traditional parties has adequately addressed their concerns. This outcome could lead to a more fragmented and potentially unstable political environment, but it could also offer an opportunity for more diverse representation and a break from the entrenched political divisions of the past.
Another potential scenario is one in which the 2028 elections are marred by disputes and accusations of fraud, leading to political instability. Given the high stakes involved and the historical tensions between the SLPP and APC, there is a risk that the losing party may not accept the results, leading to protests, violence, or even a constitutional crisis. The role of civil society, international observers, and the judiciary will be crucial in managing such a situation and ensuring that the electoral process is respected. Political instability would be detrimental to Sierra Leone’s development and could undermine the progress made in recent years, particularly in areas such as education, healthcare, and governance.
As Sierra Leone moves towards the 2028 general elections, the country stands at a crossroads. The choice between the SLPP and APC—or potentially a new political force—will determine the future direction of the nation. Voters will be looking for leadership that can address the country’s economic challenges, promote good governance, and foster national unity. The 2028 elections will not only be a contest between political parties but also a test of Sierra Leone’s democratic institutions and the resilience of its people.
Whether Sierra Leone moves from SLPP to APC, or “green to red,” will depend on the ability of the political parties to connect with the electorate and offer solutions to the country’s pressing problems. The outcome of the elections will have far-reaching implications, shaping the trajectory of Sierra Leone’s development for years to come. The key to a successful transition, regardless of the electoral outcome, will be the commitment of all stakeholders to uphold democratic principles, promote inclusive governance, and work towards a more prosperous and united Sierra Leone.
