As the countdown begins, political dynamics are already shifting in ways that could redefine Sierra Leone’s political landscape for years to come.
Perhaps the most striking dynamic heading into 2028 is the palpable erosion of public trust in both the SLPP and the APC. Citizens across the nation, from Freetown to Kailahun, Bo to Koinadugu, are voicing increasing dissatisfaction with the way successive governments have failed to address systemic issues such as unemployment, corruption, inflation, electricity blackouts, and inadequate healthcare and education systems.
President Julius Maada Bio’s administration, which once championed reforms such as the Free Quality Education (FQE) initiative and the “Feed Salone” project, now finds itself battered by criticisms of failed implementation, skyrocketing living costs, and pervasive hardship. Meanwhile, the APC, despite enjoying widespread sympathy due to their treatment post-2023 elections, continues to be haunted by its own past of economic mismanagement and internal factionalism. The result is a growing demographic—especially among the youth—clamouring for an alternative.
This disillusionment has given rise to a new political dynamic: the increasing appeal of third forces and independent political actors. The 2028 elections might witness the emergence of new political coalitions or movements built on platforms of transparency, anti-corruption, youth empowerment, and technological innovation.
Already, civil society voices, grassroots organizers, and politically savvy youths are engaging in dialogues about alternative governance models. Movements such as the National Progressive Initiative (hypothetical) or other alliances of smaller parties may gain traction if they present a coherent national agenda. These emerging actors could fragment the traditional SLPP-APC duopoly and introduce a more pluralistic and accountable system of governance.
Internal Rifts Within SLPP and APC
Both the ruling SLPP and the main opposition APC are internally divided. For the SLPP, tensions are simmering between old guard loyalists and younger technocrats, most notably between those aligned with First Lady Fatima Bio and those supporting Chief Minister David Moinina Sengeh. Speculation is rife that the Chief Minister harbours presidential ambitions, setting the stage for intense behind-the-scenes political maneuvering. Should these internal fissures deepen, the SLPP may enter the 2028 race weakened and divided.
On the APC side, the failure to resolve longstanding leadership disputes and clearly position a unifying flagbearer could be its undoing. Whether Dr. Samura Kamara, Joseph Fitzgerald Kamara, or another emerging figure leads the party will significantly influence the APC’s chances in 2028. A fragmented APC could lose its competitive edge unless it quickly consolidates around a visionary candidate and message.
The Battle for the Youth Vote
Sierra Leone’s population is overwhelmingly young, with more than 60 percent under the age of 30. This youth bulge presents both a challenge and an opportunity. Many young people are unemployed or underemployed, struggling to make ends meet. Their frustrations with the political status quo are growing. Whichever political entity can tap into this youth energy, understand their grievances, and offer real economic prospects will hold a major advantage in 2028.
Social media, music, digital activism, and urban movements are increasingly shaping political discourse. Political parties are being forced to adapt their communication strategies to engage youth in more meaningful ways. Any party or candidate that fails to resonate with this demographic risks becoming obsolete.
Ethnic and Regional Politics May Face Pushback
For decades, politics in Sierra Leone has largely followed ethnic and regional lines, with the APC dominating the north and west and the SLPP commanding the southeast. However, this old political geography is being challenged. Increasing urbanization, intermarriage, and youth-led movements that transcend tribalism are chipping away at traditional loyalties.
In 2028, a politician who can project a truly national image and platform—free from ethnic partisanship—may redefine what it means to win an election in Sierra Leone. This could potentially create a path for inclusive governance, where policies, not patronage, determine political success.
International Influence and the Role of Development Partners
The international community continues to play a crucial role in Sierra Leone’s democratic process, both through funding and diplomacy. As 2028 approaches, observers from the UN, ECOWAS, the AU, and bilateral partners will likely intensify their focus on electoral transparency and accountability.
Aid-dependent as Sierra Leone remains, there will be pressure on the government and the Electoral Commission to uphold democratic standards. Any sign of electoral manipulation or repression may jeopardize international support, which is critical for a struggling economy.
Technology and Electoral Reforms
Technology will be a major player in 2028. The debate around biometric voter registration, digital voter rolls, and real-time results dissemination will dominate the pre-election atmosphere. Whichever party can push for and ensure electoral transparency via tech reforms may gain legitimacy and public trust.
However, there is also the risk of cyber manipulation, disinformation, and fake news influencing the election. The Electoral Commission and civil society must brace themselves to tackle these challenges, ensuring the integrity of the electoral process.
Women and Minority Participation in Politics
There is a growing clamour for greater representation of women and marginalized groups in politics. Though progress has been slow, there is increasing awareness that national development cannot be achieved without inclusive governance.
It is likely that 2028 will see more female candidates contesting parliamentary and possibly presidential positions. Movements advocating for gender quotas, women’s empowerment, and inclusive policymaking may put pressure on political parties to field more diverse candidates.
A Political Rebirth or More of the Same?
Sierra Leone’s 2028 elections will not just be a political event; they will be a litmus test for the country’s democratic maturity, national cohesion, and developmental direction. The country is at a critical juncture where the old political order is fraying, and the winds of change—led by youth activism, civic awareness, and a hunger for competent leadership—are blowing stronger than ever.
Will the SLPP reinvent itself to retain power? Can the APC rise above its internal discord and reclaim its stronghold? Or will a new force emerge to challenge the old guard and offer Sierra Leone a fresh start?
The answers to these questions will be written in the sands of time; but one thing is clear: Sierra Leone’s political landscape is poised for a dramatic shift ahead of 2028.
